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LET US KNOW OVERCONFIDENCE
Overconfidence We generally tend to think that we know more than we do. If someone asks us questions about the certainty of our answer we tend to be more confident than correct. The best example is the following anagram given by Richard Goranson (1978). He asked people to unscramble the alphabets: WREAT – WATER ETRYN – ENTRY GRABE – BARGE Now see how many seconds would you require to unscramble this alphabet. Did hindsight bias come in the way? Knowing answers make us overconfident. The solution would take only 10 seconds for us to answer while in reality, the problem solver requires 3 minutes. The question arises are we better at predicting social behaviors? Students show that this may not be always the case. Philip Turlock (1998,2005) collected more than 27000 expert predictions on world events such as the future of South Africa or whether Quebec would separate from Canada. He found that these predictions which experts made with 80% confidence on average were right less ...
WHAT IS THE SCIENTIFIC ATTITUDE?
Keep Scientific Attitude, Be Curious, Skepticism And Humble Scientific Attitude: Curiosity, Skepticism, And Humble Scientific attitude is marked by curiosity, skepticism, and humbleness. Every science is guided by curiosity, a passion to explore and understand without misleading or without being misled. A scientific attitude is required to come close to real answers to the questions rather than the fantasy-based answers. For this purpose being skepticism is more important. Being skeptical does not only mean being analytical and durable but open for answers. So as a scientist psychologist, approach the world of behavior with curious skepticism by asking questions like what do you mean? How do you know? The skeptical thinking allows a psychologist to select the best suitable answers for an explanation of human behavior. For Example, can astrologers predict anyone's future based on the position of the planet on the birth chart? Is electroconvulsive therapy an effective trea...





