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WHAT IS THE HINDSIGHT BIAS?
The Hindsight Bias: I Knew of all along with Phenomenon Hindsight bias is defined as the tendency to believe after learning an outcome that one knew it all along and such an outcome was inevitable. It is also known as (I knew it all along) phenomenon. A cricket team's captain is given the credit if the match is won and the captain is faulted if the match is lost. After a cricket match, war or election, its outcome usually seems to be inevitable, and then we say after the outcome "See this is what I was saying or I knew this would happen". People have tremendous capacity and willingness to explain away contradictory findings as justifiable based on common sense. For example, half the members of a group were told that psychologists have found that separation weakens romantic attraction and as the saying goes "out of sight out of mind" and asked them to imagine why this might be true. Most people can and nearly all will then view this true finding as not very ...
LET US KNOW OVERCONFIDENCE
Overconfidence We generally tend to think that we know more than we do. If someone asks us questions about the certainty of our answer we tend to be more confident than correct. The best example is the following anagram given by Richard Goranson (1978). He asked people to unscramble the alphabets: WREAT – WATER ETRYN – ENTRY GRABE – BARGE Now see how many seconds would you require to unscramble this alphabet. Did hindsight bias come in the way? Knowing answers make us overconfident. The solution would take only 10 seconds for us to answer while in reality, the problem solver requires 3 minutes. The question arises are we better at predicting social behaviors? Students show that this may not be always the case. Philip Turlock (1998,2005) collected more than 27000 expert predictions on world events such as the future of South Africa or whether Quebec would separate from Canada. He found that these predictions which experts made with 80% confidence on average were right less ...





